The Great Newsom-Vance Faceoff

O.K., the cat’s out of the bag.

Even the most casual political observer has noticed the tell-tale signs of California Gov. Gavin Newsom getting ready to launch his presidential bid for 2028. After governing the Golden State for six years as a radical left-wing ideologue, Newsom has been trying to reshape his image by adopting more moderate positions as he approaches the end of his second and final term.

Newsom’s Democratic primary opponents are sure to include Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, both of whom are more popular in their home states than Newsom is in California. After all, even though Newsom survived a recall election in 2021, more than 1.7 million state residents signed a petition to have him removed from office and almost 5 million voted that way at the polls. And although he was re-elected the following year to a second term, Newsom was the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate since 2010 not to win at least 60% of the vote.

Meanwhile, Beshear’s 68% approval rating is the nation’s second highest and Shapiro’s isn’t far behind.

And so, it won’t be smooth sailing for the slick-talking Newsom in 2028 as the far-more-competent Beshear and Shapiro are sure to give him a run for his money. They both know that Newsom is vulnerable – from his recent policy flip-flips on immigration and homelessness to his total mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and January’s wildfires that killed at least 30 people, forced more than 200,000 evacuations, destroyed more than 18,000 homes, and burned over 57,000 acres.

And, of course, who can forget that epic night out at the French Laundry, a three-Michelin star French and California cuisine restaurant in Napa Valley, where Newsom dined in luxury while the rest of the state was under his draconian mandatory lockdown order.

In case you are wondering, dinner at the French Laundry will set you back $425 per person, which includes a gratuity but not extras such as caviar and truffles. This week’s “tasting menu” includes Nova Scotia Lobster, Applewood Smoked Wolfe Ranch Quail, Herb Roasted Broken Arrow Ranch Antelope, a Japanese dish that I can’t pronounce which costs an extra $135, and four different desserts (you get one of each).

Good to know that Gavin is a true man of the people.

And yet, my guess is that voters will once again choose style over substance, so the wavy-haired ex-husband of Kimberly Guilfoyle and current spouse of “First Partner” Jennifer Siebel most likely survives the primaries, clinches the nomination, and winds up debating the GOP frontrunner TBD.

Once again, the smart money says it will be Vice President JD Vance.

I doubt that the Republican race will be a coronation unless President Trump manages to somehow clear the field for his protégé and heir apparent. However, President Trump is reportedly impressed with the job Marco Rubio has done as Secretary of State and I can’t see Marco sitting on his hands for another four or eight years. Nor, for that matter, can I see Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis biding his time until 2032 or 2036. The same goes for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and possibly a senator or two.

However, once the dust settles, it figures to be Newsom vs. Vance for the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue… and at this point, I think the Vegas oddsmakers would call it a toss-up.